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Nickel: up or down?

23 December 2014

Analysts «Goldman Sachs» revised their forecasts for nickel to the downside. According to new data from the price of nickel in 2015 will fall to the level of 22 thousand. USD 17.5 thousand. USD. The main cause of changes in value — the estimated nickel pig iron output growth in 2014−2015. For 2016−2017gg. the projected cost of the metal increased. Previous data suggested price for a ton of nickel at 18 thousand. USD and 16 thousand. USD respectively. According to the revised forecasts of the price increase to 20 thousand. USD and 18 thousand. USD.

The Indonesian government, meanwhile, strictly adheres to the course on the extension of the ban exports of unprocessed nickel ore. Not surprisingly, in connection with the fact that the price of nickel on the LME soared by 5.4%. According to analysts, should expect not only prices, but also the metal shortage. In November, representatives of «Citi Group» believed that the lack of nickel in 2014 will reach 64.4 thousand. Tonnes. In 2015, according to their own opinion of deficit exceeds 103 thousand. Tonnes. Now, however, in the warehouses of the London Stock Exchange nickel stocks continue to increase. In late November, the number reached 407,000 tons. This figure exceeds the volume of nickel at the beginning of 2014 by 146 000 tonnes. So it is necessary to question the rapid increase in the value of the metal before the end of this year. Besides, the world market at the moment is saturated with nickel. This situation can last, and in 2015, which, incidentally, does not exclude the possibility of a deficit in 2015−2016.

Whatever it was, the Philippines from the Indonesian ban are the undoubted winners. That Filipino suppliers have taken a leading position in the export of nickel. A significant role is played by China as the country continues to increase the level of consumption of the metal. As the data in the US Geological Survey, in 2013, the Philippines, along with Indonesia, is the leading nickel producers. In an effort to make full use of the situation, the Philippine government supports the mining companies. In particular, «Marcventures Holdings» has received government approval for the expansion of its operations in the nickel mines. Another company, «Mines and Geoscience Beauro», had the opportunity to extract nickel ore in the province of Mindanao. To this end, the company's management plans to put into operation the mine on a plot size of 4799 hectares.

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