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Exports of steel from China is expected to peak in 2015

19 October 2015

JPMorgan Chase & Co Bank Experts have forecast for China's exports of steel. According to their assumptions volume will peak in 2015. World rental market is watching wave of protectionism. Purchases are limited to Chinese products in the US, India and the EU. Also noticeable decline in consumer demand in Latin American and Asian countries. Bank analysts believe that in 2015, net exports from China will be 86 million. Tons. In 2016, possible slight increase to a level of 87 million. Tons. In 2017, deliveries will be reduced to 83 million. Tons. Until 2035 allegedly steel exports exceed imports from China up to 90 mln. Tons / year. This figure will remain relatively stable. In 2015, in January-August export volume of Chinese products reached 71.9 million. Tons. Index of net exports reached a point just below 63.2 million. Tons.

Expansion of Chinese export volumes is mainly due to excessive growth of steel output. The market is continuing to shrink. JPMorgan Experts estimate that the decline by 4% in 2015, the consumption of steel in China. In 2016, the reduction will amount to an additional 2%. UBS Securities representatives predict a surplus capacity in China at the level of 441 million. Tonnes by the end of 2015. The level of their load over 5 years will not exceed 60%.

The cost of rental is continuing to fall. The majority of steel plants located at a loss. However, China is not incapacitate overcapacity. Western experts believe that the point here is to reduce the cost. For this effect, China successfully uses raw cheapness. Besides, steelmakers as local major employers have the support of the authorities. Because it is not necessary to hope to halt the rolling mills and blast furnaces in China.

Negative trends in the global steel market were noted at a conference in Sochi. Probably, in 2016 the movement in this direction will continue. The cost of the main types of steel products almost reached the minimum. However, the final drop can be delayed until the second half of 2016. After that, under assumptions of experts quotes will not be increased. In a situation affects a disappointing state of the global economy. The coming crisis is constrained by the quantitative easing program. However, to prevent it is hardly possible.

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